A shift in Washington power
Democrats regained control of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate and won several governorships, including victories in Republican strongholds like South Carolina, Texas, and Kansas. The changing power dynamic in Washington puts Donald Trump under pressure. This result is a monumental rebuke of the U.S. president and gives Europe’s mainstream a rare moment of transatlantic relief. European Parliament Vice President Sophie Wilmes said the victory creates a "major shift in the balance of power in the U.S. Congress." She expressed hope for a "calmer, more constructive relationship with Europe." Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez stated that American society voted against policies that only impoverish, against hate, against sexism, against climate change denial, and against the privileges of the elites. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski mocked Elon Musk on X. He reshared a tweet from June last year that said, "See, big man, politics is harder than you thought." Enrico Letta, a former Italian Prime Minister, wrote on X that Europe is "much stronger" because of the "blue wave." Kathleen Van Brempt, vice-chair of the European Parliament’s International Trade Committee, shared a White House tweet predicting a Trump victory and captioned it that it was, actually, America that won. Markets in Paris, London, and Frankfurt opened slightly higher on Wednesday.
Far-right risks and economic pressure
The Democratic victory presents challenges for Europe’s rising far right, which balances admiration for Trump with the reality of his unpopularity across the continent. The results are an uncomfortable reminder of the political risks of being too closely associated with the U.S. president. Jordan Bardella, the leader of France’s National Rally, attributed the result to the U.S. intervention in Iran. He claimed the intervention had a strong impact on the U.S. and European economies. Marine Le Pen, the National Rally presidential candidate, remains the leader in French polls and maintains that defeats for nationalist politicians in Brazil, Hungary, and the United States do not affect his party’s chances. Marine Tondelier, leader of France’s Greens, called the U.S. the "laughingstock of the world" and warned that if France brings the National Rally to power in April next year, the country will meet the "same tragic fate as the United States." American voters focused on the cost-of-living crisis. This matches concerns in France, Spain, and Greece where citizens face soaring rents and widespread anger at apparently impotent governments. Donald Trump told Fox News during an election night call that Europe is "dying" and that countries like France and Italy "may not even survive, frankly."
The limits of congressional control
European officials acknowledge that a Democratic-controlled Congress does not guarantee a more accommodating U.S. administration. Trump retains considerable room to maneuver on foreign policy, including on the issues that have most strained transatlantic ties: European security, trade and Russia’s war in Ukraine. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius called the win "historic." He told the Berlin Security Conference that Europe does not know what the president will do in the near future. He said he will seek close contact with the Democrats. French Economy Minister Roland Lescure noted that the unpredictable president remains "in charge of international policy" despite being "quite weakened" domestically. U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker insisted that the foreign policy of the United States has not changed and that the issues facing the alliance remain the same. Mika Aaltola, a Finnish MEP, wrote on X that the president’s hands are more tied because voters have a habit of balancing power. A hostile Congress could make it harder for Trump to push through his domestic agenda and could open the door to greater scrutiny of his administration. Trump still retains many of the executive’s powers on foreign policy.
