Spain’s November 29 election could push the dormant issue of Catalan independence back to the top of the political agenda. Nearly a decade after the 2017 constitutional crisis, the topic barely makes headlines, yet polls predict a conservative People’s Party (PP) and far-right Vox victory. Their staunch unionism threatens to inflame feelings across the region of 8 million people. Francesc-Marc Alvaro, a Senate candidate for the Catalan Republican Left, warned that such a government would "throw gasoline on Catalan society" by cutting self-governing powers. Miriam Nogueras of Junts argued that Catalonia has never been respected by any Spanish regime, predicting the independence movement will regain momentum with renewed strength because dependence on Spain makes everyone poorer.
A fragmented but waiting opposition
The cross-party unity that drove the 2017 secession bid has dissolved, leaving the movement fragmented and weakened according to former president Carles Puigdemont. Although 43% of Catalans remain in favor of independence, regional statistics show the topic has fallen behind housing, immigration, and crime on their priority list. Puigdemont admitted to El Punt Avui from Waterloo, Belgium, that he wants to stop being Spanish, comparing his feeling to someone trapped in the wrong body. He recently noted that even in difficult times, Spain generates crises that the movement should be prepared to exploit. His return home is expected after the election, which could provide a morale boost just as a hostile right enters government. Junts leader Puigdemont believes a PP-Vox administration will deliberately screw over Catalonia to reproduce the blueprint that led to the 2017 events. The party has been struggling in polls and helped trigger the snap election by voting against Sanchez’s housing measures, banking on a change of administration to revive its cause.
Unionist rhetoric masks hardline intent
For Madrid, the stakes are economic as well as political, with Catalonia representing about 19% of the national economy and 16.5% of the population. Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez negotiated with pro-independence parties and granted an amnesty to calm the atmosphere, a move that angered the Spanish right. In contrast, PP leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo accused Sanchez of deconstructing the 1978 constitutional system. Vox, which rose to prominence opposing separatism, has called for pro-independence parties to be made illegal and advocates dismantling Spain’s decentralized structure. Spokesperson Jose Antonio Fuster stated they want to make separatists’ life as difficult as possible because they have made life impossible for Spaniards in general. However, both parties are currently taking a muted approach during the campaign. Feijoo insisted in La Vanguardia that he is not here to centralize but to make self-government work, while complaining about uncarried-out public works. Vox leader Santiago Abascal has prioritized clamping down on immigration, claiming Catalan identity needs protection from Islamism. This toned-down rhetoric appears influenced by a desire not to antagonize voters of the Catalan Alliance, a far-right pro-independence party that will not run against them. Salvador Illa, the Socialist Catalan president, dismissed this emollient approach, calling the right-wing leaders wolves presenting themselves as little lambs. He warned that 47 years of building regional self-government could go down the toilet in one legislature of Feijoo and Abascal.
A less dramatic but significant move might involve eliminating the use of Catalan in Spanish Congress debates, which Oriol Bartomeus calls a declaration of war. Alvaro foresees a right-wing administration cutting back Catalan financing and policing powers, mirroring measures already introduced in Valencia and the Balearic Islands. Bartomeus suggests the PP may take a harder line if it underperforms economically, using culture wars as a substitute for successful policy. If the next government takes a hardline approach to unionism, it will likely re-energize separatism. The balance of power between the PP and Vox will determine whether dismantling regional government or outlawing parties becomes reality, moves the PP has resisted in the past.
