Kyiv ignores US demands
Ukrainian long-range drones set fire to the Kstovo refinery in Nizhny Novgorod oblast overnight. This follows a major strike against a Rosneft refinery in Samara oblast. While the Wall Street Journal reported that Ukraine had previously given in to pressure to stop bombing energy infrastructure, Ukrainian officials told the Kyiv Independent they never agreed to a demand from Jared Kushner to pause refinery strikes for 30 days. I find the Kremlin’s complaint that Kyiv was "simply ignoring" US wishes to be a predictable reaction to the renewed strikes, which began on Friday. Donald Trump has blamed Zelenskyy for rising global fuel prices and lifted US sanctions on Russian diesel last month. Zelenskyy has not acknowledged these specific refinery attacks to avoid US reprisals, instead claiming his forces hit a defense industry enterprise in Russia’s Rostov region and destroyed a Pantsir missile system as part of Ukraine’s "long-range sanctions."
Military losses and the Oleshky truce
The six-day local ceasefire in the Russian-occupied town of Oleshky, which Melania Trump brokered, was due to end late Sunday. This town sits on the left bank of the Dnipro River, opposite the larger city of Kherson. Hundreds of residents in northern Ukraine reunited with loved ones over the weekend. I find the Russian military’s use of this truce to reinforce its positions and swap hungry, exhausted troops in Oleshky to be a complete exploitation of a humanitarian window. This truce ended after Russia hit four Ukrainian regions overnight with drones and ballistic missiles, cutting electricity to hundreds of thousands of households. Kyiv saw power cuts lasting 10 hours on Sunday. Russia suffered 54,400 military personnel killed or wounded in October, the highest monthly figure since the full-scale war began. Ukraine recaptured 96.2 sqkm of territory last month, exceeding Moscow’s seizure by 10.4 sqkm. Trilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US will likely take place later this month, even as the pope hopes cooperation in Oleshky might lead to dialogue. Kremlin officials said on Sunday that Putin is willing to talk directly with Zelenskyy by phone, but he remains unwilling to move from his demands that Ukraine give up all of eastern Donetsk oblast and further territory in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces.
