The World Meteorological Organization reports that the imbalance between incoming solar energy and outgoing heat reached its highest level since monitoring began. This gap drives the rapid accumulation of thermal energy in Earth’s systems, a process now accelerating at an unprecedented pace. As diplomats gather in Antalya for the 31st climate conference, the data confirms that 2026 is on track to become one of the four warmest years on record. The agency notes that average surface temperatures from January to September stood 1.47C above the preindustrial average, while sea levels hit their highest point since records began. The ocean absorbed 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, marking a tenth successive year of record ocean heat. "We have entered a new age of climate extremes," UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated, warning that a supersized El Nino collides with a planet already superheated by manmade climate change.
The physics of warming
Ocean heat content estimates show the global energy imbalance rose at a rate of 0.3W per square metre each decade from 2001 to 2025, compared with only 0.13W per square metre over the longer period from 1960 to 2025. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations jumped from 356.42 ppm in 1992 to 426.8 ppm in 2025, a 53% increase since the Industrial Revolution began. Bill McGuire, a professor emeritus at University College London, argues that this growing imbalance, rather than emissions alone, most accurately tracks how quickly the planet will continue to heat up. He points out that natural feedbacks are now driving temperatures more rapidly than they did twenty years ago. McGuire reports that the latest research suggests we will cross the 1.5C limit permanently in 2028, with the planet heating at an extraordinary rate of 0.4C per decade. He warns that previous projections of 2.6-2.8C by century end now seem wildly optimistic, if not downright impossible.
Cryosphere losses and future risks
Glaciers lost more than 400 gigatonnes of mass, marking the fourth consecutive year in which all 19 glacierised regions around the world experienced mass loss. Antarctic sea ice reached its third-lowest annual maximum ever in 2026, while the Arctic maximum was the lowest or second lowest on record. Heat in the upper 2,000 metres of the ocean in 2025 was the highest in the observed record and is projected to continue rising. The WMO describes this warming as irreversible on centennial to millennial timescales. A brewing El Nino, forecast to be stronger than any in the past 1,000 years, makes it likely that the final mean temperature for 2026 will exceed the current 1.47C reading. These conditions set the stage for intensified heatwaves, droughts, and tropical cyclones as the system absorbs more energy than it can release.
