European security faces instability
Five NATO diplomats say a Republican loss in the Tuesday midterm elections could cause President Donald Trump to increase his attacks on the alliance. These diplomats believe Trump may pull thousands more troops from Europe or cut NATO funding to establish a foreign policy legacy. White House Assistant Press Secretary Olivia Wales said Trump has done more for NATO than anyone else, noting his efforts to get allies to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 and his work regarding Greenland and the war in Ukraine. She added that the President remains firm that allies should have been there for the United States during the war in Iran and will not settle for the West’s managed decline. Trump’s personal approval ratings have also fallen to his lowest on record.
Transatlantic tensions grew following a U.S. cutoff of Starlink satellite services for Ukraine and a fresh rapprochement between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin weeks before the midterms. One senior European defense official said a lame duck president often experiences a mix of venting frustrations and adventurism in foreign policy. Oana Lungescu, a former NATO official and distinguished fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, says the administration could tie the continued American presence on the continent to Europe accepting a U.S.-backed peace deal in Ukraine with Putin. This could create a dangerous situation for security in Europe, especially as Russia increases its sabotage campaign and hybrid war. Trump could also cut U.S. contributions to common funding, limit the NATO-backed PURL arms-buying scheme for Ukraine, or deepen ties with Russia. One diplomat said, "He could be very pissed off. If so, he’ll be very harsh."
| US-NATO Metric | Value/Target |
|---|---|
| Minimum U.S. troop presence in Europe | 76,000 |
| Ally defense spending target by 2035 | 5% of GDP |
Pentagon leadership under pressure
Democrats expect to win the House of Representatives and may flip the Senate, which would limit Trump’s maneuverability. Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow at the Defense Priorities think tank, says it is doubtful that current troop floors would withstand legal scrutiny because the Trump administration regularly ignores funding guidance from Congress. Europe will struggle to replace electronic warfare capabilities, air defense systems, intelligence and reconnaissance support, aerial refueling, and certain types of logistics if Trump implements a wide drawdown. Montenegrin Defense Minister Dragan Krapovic said Congress makes the final decision about less troops in Europe, expressing skepticism that Trump would hammer the alliance. A sixth NATO diplomat said, "To make assumptions with a high probability of success needs an object of study that makes rational decisions. I don’t think we are there with the current POTUS."
Clearly, a Republican loss in the midterms threatens the stability of transatlantic security. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faces significant pressure in Congress because he refuses to provide regular briefings about budgets and operations to lawmakers. A Democrat-led Congress could launch investigations into Hegseth for firing dozens of generals and admirals without cause and for the failing war in Iran. These investigations would hamstring Hegseth and his team, and a Republican electoral defeat could lead to him leaving his position. A transition period at the Pentagon would delay any decisions about moving U.S. troops out of Europe by weeks or months.
