President Nausėda warns Russia uses hybrid warfare to test NATO

Hybrid warfare targets the alliance

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda expects Vladimir Putin to continue testing NATO collective defense commitments through hybrid attacks like drone incursions, cyberattacks, arson, and other tactics across the alliance, including in Germany and Denmark. I find Nauseda’s warning that Russia is moving closer to NATO’s Article 5 quite significant. He told WELT that Russia currently lacks the capacity for large-scale operations because Russian resources remain tied to the Ukrainian battlefield. Nauseda, an economist who has led Lithuania since 2019, said Putin is testing the alliance’s determination. This hybrid war will continue on NATO’s eastern flank. The Russian leader aims to observe how the alliance responds when certain red lines are crossed. He does not think a conventional Russian attack on NATO territory is likely for now.

The president expects the hybrid war to persist because Russia is testing how determined NATO is. These hybrid attacks include drone incursions and cyberattacks. Russia is not succeeding on the Ukrainian battlefield, according to Nauseda. The provocations will reach beyond the eastern flank to countries like Germany and Denmark. The hybrid war will continue in Germany, Denmark and other countries in addition to NATO’s eastern flank, Nauseda explained.

Moscow’s negotiation tactics

Nauseda sees no serious willingness in Moscow to enter negotiations to end the war against Ukraine before next spring. Moscow will use the winter months to increase pressure on Ukraine through air strikes on cities. Nauseda expressed a blunt distrust, stating, "The Russians will only pretend to negotiate. I don’t trust them." He believes that if Ukraine gets through this winter, chances for serious talks improve in 2027. He does not expect them any earlier. Nauseda, who has led Lithuania since 2019, also expects Putin to make demands that are unacceptable to Ukraine from the outset. He is convinced that Ukraine will get through this winter.

Nauseda expects Putin to make demands that are unacceptable to Ukraine from the very beginning. He believes that the Russian leader will use the winter months to keep up pressure through air strikes. He also noted that Russia is not succeeding on the battlefield.