Blue Origin capacity and mission lanes
Henry from Quilty says the looming launch crisis is "more severe" than anticipated. He adopted a conservative forecast for Blue Origin, predicting eight New Glenn launches in 2028, 12 in 2029, and 16 in 2030. Blue Origin builds production capacity for up to 150 upper stages annually. Although Henry admits it will take time to launch such a large rocket at a high rate, he says Blue could "come out of the gate swinging" because they have been in development for so long. A new generation of medium-lift rockets should join Lane 1, which includes Falcon rockets, New Glenn, and United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan, within the next year or two.
The national security launch program uses two lanes to manage different mission requirements. Lane 1 is for missions with a higher risk tolerance and allows any company that has successfully launched a rocket a single time to bid on these missions. Lane 2 is reserved for SpaceX and United Launch Alliance. This two-lane system divides missions based on risk and provider eligibility.
| Program | Previous Demand | New Forecast Demand |
|---|---|---|
| Lane 1 | 30 to 60 | 170 |
| Lane 2 | 54 | 79 |
US Space Force demand surge
The US Space Force announced a dramatic increase in forecast demand for both mission lanes earlier this year. The US Space Force orders these missions between 2025 and 2029. Lane 1, which permits any company with a single successful rocket launch to bid on missions, saw its forecast demand increase from an estimated 30 to 60 launches to about 170 launches. Lane 2 saw its forecast demand increase from 54 launches to 79 launches.
Henry did not include this surge in military launch demand in his original calculations because he believes the US government will compel SpaceX to perform launches it deems national priorities. SpaceX is already building these satellites, such as the Space-Based Airborne Moving Target Indicator constellation. Because SpaceX is already producing these satellites, Henry believes the military will be able to require the company to perform these launches. This surge affects the capacity of medium-lift and heavy-lift providers across the industry.
